The Nikkei continued to fall, and warnings of a state of emergency were also low-priced bargain hunting | Reuters

*12:10 JST Nikkei continues to fall, buy dips even with emergency warning
The Nikkei continued to fall. The stock closed at 27,344.87 yen (approximate volume: 540.66 million shares), down 99.30 yen.

Within two days after the Tokyo stock market closed on December 30, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the U.S. stock market rose by more than $270, the Nasdaq index rose by more than 38 points to $30,606.48, and the Nasdaq closed at 12,888.28 points. On the 31st, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week and was lower than expected. People’s expectations for increasing welfare plans were rekindled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. .

Tokyo shares were led by buying at the open today, following gains in Wall Street late last year. Shares have been underpinned by many expectations for gains this year due to the spread of a COVID-19 vaccine, expectations of a normalization of economic activity and the prospect of prolonged monetary easing. On the other hand, even at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the spread of infection has not stopped, and it is reported that Prime Minister Naoto Kan will consider issuing a state of emergency declaration for Tokyo and the three prefectures. The Nikkei subsequently turned lower. The opening buying was partly due to the appreciation of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar by about 30 cents, compared to around 15:00 on December 30 last year, when the market was around 103.00 yen against the dollar, with a width of more than 400 yen. However, as the Nikkei approached 27,000 yen, there was some bargaining, and from the middle of the previous session, the Nikkei began to be reluctant to move lower.

Due to individual speculation that the suspension period of “GoTo Travel” will be extended, JAL9201JR East9020his.9603Travel-related stocks such as OLC4661first round4680Leisure-related stocks such as Cheap, are considering moving up two hours in response to requests to shorten restaurant hours in Tokyo and three prefectures.3193Cola Verde7616Other restaurant-related stocks were sold. In addition, G Dining, which is disgusted by the tightening of margin financing and securities lending regulations,7625ASICS announces extraordinary loss due to closure of North American flagship store7936reduce.

On the other hand, due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection, Shinei Co., Ltd.3004double bird6897and V-cube as the With Corona brand3681Yamitopia6095M32413riding on E6082Looking for Monex G, Considering Bitcoin Price Soaring8698Ceres3696raised.

By industry, air transport, real estate, land transport, mining and insurance saw the biggest price falls. On the other hand, prices rose in the electricity and gas sectors, as well as in the information and communications sector. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s first sector, 77 percent of stocks were in decline, while 19 percent were gainers.

Last year was a turbulent year for the stock market. Although I will comment on it later, it can be said that the market is easy to understand with the formula I have been using “stock price = economy / interest rate”. Amid the coronavirus shock that lasted into March, stock prices plummeted on perceptions that the economy would worsen and molecules got smaller. Then, due to the long-term prospect of massive monetary easing by global financial authorities, the denominator got smaller, but the numerator did not, and even as a result, the numerator did not decrease and the denominator decreased, creating a nearly perfect environment for stock prices to rise. However, things may change slightly this year.

In terms of molecular economy, last year’s expectation of economic recovery after the epidemic ranked first, but this year due to factors such as the popularity of vaccines, we have to face the “reality” of how much the economy actually recovers. I think it will gradually change. Last year, the stock market’s reaction to dismal economic data was short-lived, but that may not be the case this year.

The denominator could change as the economic recovery starts to materialize rather than be expected. Even before last year’s FOMC meeting, continuing to ease policy anyway was a good decision. But that won’t be the case this year. Depending on the extent of the economic recovery, we should bear in mind that monetary easing may end earlier than planned. Also worrisome is the fact that much of the pundits’ market forecasts for this year are based on the assumption that monetary easing will continue for an extended period.

In this way, this year is likely to shift from last year’s “anticipation” to “face-to-face” economic and financial. I want to increase the sensitivity of the antenna and survive “the choppy waters of reality”. Next time I have a chance, I want to think more about “The Waves of Reality”.

Now, the Nikkei is likely to struggle in the afternoon session in Tokyo. The vigilance against the spread of the new coronavirus infection is strong, the mood of waiting to see the changes in the number of new infections after today is strong, and the atmosphere that is difficult to actively buy is strong. On the other hand, TOPIX fell 0.66% in early trading, and the Bank of Japan may buy ETFs at midday. In addition, the US Senate runoff election will be held in Georgia on the 5th of this week. At that time, the United States will release a series of important economic data, including the employment report on the 8th. Wait-and-see sentiment may spread. (Shinichi Koyama)

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