On Taiwan, China Redefines Restraint

Does China’s peace strategy also include Taiwan? Yes, but the U.S. must adapt to “Chinese restraint.”

After bidding farewell to McCarthy, Tsai Ing-wen returned to Taiwan from the United States, and Beijing immediately launched a three-day military exercise around Taiwan. This is the second large-scale targeted military countermeasure. The last time was after Pelosi visited Taiwan.

It is expected that China will show restraint this time, but the result is unexpected.

Taiwan’s prediction of events was completely wrong. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party originally believed that if the meeting between Tsai Ing-wen and McCarthy were held in the United States, it would be less humiliating to China, and there would be no more round-the-island military exercises—this is the main reason why Taiwan took the initiative to move the meeting to the United States ——But Beijing is obviously ungrateful. What Xi wants to say is that the focus is not on the “location”, but on the “meeting”.

The US media also made mistakes in predicting this event. They believed that Beijing was hosting French President Macron and European Commission President Von der Leyen. Choosing to intensify military tensions at this time would embarrass the two European politicians and damage China-EU relations (Note 1) . In addition, Brazilian President Lula will also visit China. It is widely predicted that China will launch a charm offensive to create a peaceful atmosphere during this period.

However, Beijing clearly does not want the world to misunderstand China’s call for peace. “It is just wishful thinking to expect China to compromise on the Taiwan issue. Doing so will only shoot itself in the foot.

China’s call for peace does not imply a compromise on Taiwan, which is at the heart of China’s core interests. If the West tries to test this bottom line, China will not hesitate to show its determination to defend its sovereignty, even if its specific actions will damage Beijing’s relationship with the West.

In other words, avoiding the internationalization of the Taiwan issue is the foothold and restricted area of ​​China’s diplomacy.

Due to the current Biden administration’s eagerness to engage with Beijing (Note 2), Tsai Ing-wen’s visit has been coldly received. The White House has barred any federal officials from contacting Tsai, minimizing her public remarks. The U.S. ruling party used this to describe the scene as an incident of the opposition party, or even McCarthy’s personal behavior, rather than the official U.S. statement, in order to show Washington’s restraint, but this restraint has a premise that the U.S. must understand China: mutual trust between the U.S. and China.

At present, the United States and China have no basis for mutual trust on the Taiwan issue. On the one hand, the Biden administration tends to give Beijing a blank check, and on the other hand, it actually promotes Taiwan-US relations. Words and deeds are grossly disproportionate, leading to zero trust. From Beijing’s point of view, this is another U.S. “sausage tactic” strategy, one step forward and one step back. Therefore, the proportionate “restraint” China notified the U.S. side was not what the U.S. expected. Perhaps, no missiles flew over Taiwan this time because of proportional restraint.

Washington knows well that manipulating the Taiwan issue is tantamount to giving Beijing a license to overreact and undermine the United States, so McCarthy apparently backed down by canceling his visit to Taiwan and reaffirming America’s ” One China policy”. In addition, the Republican Party has also restrained its desire to perform, showing only a minimal support, which is not lost, but the consequences are still beyond expectations.

Does Beijing’s assertiveness toward Taiwan contradict its demands for peace? In fact, they are not. The United States can interpret it in this way—China’s “thin-skinned diplomacy” and “overreaction” are intended to highlight the bellicose nature of the United States and contrast China’s peaceful image. Every time the United States crosses the border, it is helping China occupy the moral high ground and offset the trend of internationalization of the Taiwan issue.

Washington will find that the more it manipulates the Taiwan issue, the more China’s neighbors resent the United States, and a Chinese military response will become necessary for the sake of regional peace.

ASEAN and India are rising and definitely don’t want to see a regional war. As a loyal ally, Japan is following the wishes of the United States to expand its military, but this does not mean that they are willing to get involved in the Taiwan War (Note 3). This is why Beijing, on the one hand, calls for the peaceful reunification of Taiwan, and on the other hand, implements a gray zone strategy, which aims to slowly recover Taiwan and minimize possible resistance from neighboring countries.

Arming Taiwan with the United States gave Beijing an excuse and a bargaining chip to accelerate reunification.

China is completely different from Russia. The former will patiently steer the situation in a direction favorable to itself, and will not show its hand until it is sure that the worst consequences will not hinder China’s revival.

Ironically, the “neoconservatives” portray Taiwan as the Ukraine of East Asia, give China a “peace megaphone”, and call on neighboring countries to raise the anti-war banner, allowing China to “overreact” under this banner and expand its military deploy.

For Beijing, neoconservatives in the United States are both a curse and a blessing.

Is Sino-U.S. conflict inevitable over Taiwan? Precisely, the question for the United States is how to steer the inevitable conflict in America’s favor, and the question for China is how to dispel such thinking in the United States.

Beijing believes that only if the United States cannot effectively unite with the West to weaken China on the Taiwan issue, Washington will abandon the idea of ​​resolving the Taiwan issue through conflict and instead seek a peaceful solution through transactions.

To achieve this goal, a clear move towards a multipolar world is necessary, in which European autonomy is crucial, and the autonomy of other regions such as the Middle East, Africa and Latin America can serve as a European example to follow.

Once multipolarization becomes an irreversible trend, the United States will lack sufficient allies to manipulate conflicts across the Taiwan Strait.

Of course, this process will not be smooth sailing, and there will inevitably be many tense situations during the period. As for which side effectively advances the goal in the crisis, the observation point is which side has created an irreversible “new normal”.

What goals did Beijing use this meeting between Tsai Ing-wen and McCarthy to advance? The “United Sword” military exercise is not new, and similar military exercises have become the norm. The real novelty this time around is the “combat readiness patrol,” a new three-day patrol at sea.

China’s southeastern provinces have conducted “on-site inspections” of cargo ships and engineering ships in the northern and central Taiwan Strait to “ensure the safety of the ships’ navigation,” a non-military act aimed at obliterating Taiwan’s sovereignty.

This means that Beijing is seeking to establish a non-military new normal to assert its sovereignty. The three-day operation is just one example. Of course, there will be other “sovereignty override” operations in the future.

Yes, this is a gray zone strategy, yes, this is the Chinese version of “sausage tactics”, and yes, there is nothing the US can do about it.

Although former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou visited China during Tsai Ing-wen’s “transit” in the United States, and sang peace arias on the spot, many Taiwanese elites believed that Beijing would not talk about peace on the one hand, and increase deterrence on the other. Well, they also misjudged The content of China’s peace strategy, Xi’s message is that peace and trust should not be taken for granted, but must be striven for.

Beijing no longer tolerates Washington and Taipei adopting a dual strategy against China, using peaceful gestures to cover up provocative actions in order to actually advance the goal of Taiwan independence.

Taiwan’s general election in 2024 does not limit Beijing’s willingness to escalate its military threats. Beijing is not temporarily giving in, but believes that moderate tension will make the people of Taiwan cherish the current peace and oppose all hostile gestures.

Two steps forward means two steps back. Beijing’s unexpected countermeasure this time is warning the McCarthy and Biden administrations that Taiwan is China’s bottom line and cannot be crossed even one step. The definition of “restraint” depends on China.

There are already restrained voices in the United States (Note 5), demanding to stop radical speeches against China. The wise American people have realized that the consequences of excessive actions are unimaginable, because China has rejected the United States’ desire to abandon the existing guardrails (Three U.S.-China communiqués) , and tried to create a new communiqué by limiting communication (Note 6). The new guardrails mean a Chinese compromise on Taiwan, which is impossible.

The Biden administration must ask itself, who succeeded in establishing an irreversible new normal? China or America? If the answer is not “America”, then it should stop manipulating the Taiwan issue, because this is a risky game.

Note 1: https://www.recordpatriot.com/news/article/china-restraint-on-taiwan-shows-xi-has-bigger-17882190.php

Note 2: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/05/china-contact-united-states-00090495

Note 3: https://www.voanews.com/a/despite-tough-words-japan-might-not-enter-a-taiwan-war/6791868.html

Note 4: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-braces-new-china-pressure-tactic-disputed-strait-2023-04-06/

Note 5: https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/03/lower-rhetoric-china-says-milley/384693/.

Note 6: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/03/11/assuring-beijing-key-to-building-guardrails-on-us-china-relations/