HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) – Hong Kong is becoming a testing ground for Chinese research on how to live with the novel coronavirus. In the future, China may relax its “zero corona policy” to completely curb the infection. Hong Kong is currently battling a rapidly increasing number of infections, and lessons learned from this will be useful research material for the resumption of socio-economic activities in China.
In the past month, the number of new infections in Hong Kong has increased by more than 500 times, and it has now reached 50,000, surpassing the United States. Researchers at the University of Hong Kong estimated that the outbreak at Omicron shareholders would reach 180,000 new infections per day at its peak, exacerbating shortages of hospital beds and medical staff. Fears of a total lockdown and mandatory testing have caused Hong Kongers to panic, with goods disappearing from supermarkets and pharmacies.
The crisis in Hong Kong is a far cry from the situation in mainland China. Even a small increase in cases on the mainland has been contained by what are arguably the world’s toughest containment measures.
But strict regulations in China continue to weigh on domestic consumption as most major countries begin to deregulate. In fact, China’s economy took a surprising turn for the worse in the fourth quarter of last year.
On the other hand, the Chinese government has been going all out this year to ensure economic stability, and in this regard, there is momentum for a review of the zero-corona policy. Chinese policymakers have rolled out several experimental measures, including a “travel bubble” similar to the one launched at the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. We are considering implementing it as early as summer.
This week, Zeng Guang, a former chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said frankly that China will soon come up with a plan for co-existing with the coronavirus. Most of all, he appreciates that Western countries are taking risks with open borders.
Therefore, what is happening in Hong Kong now has great significance for the resumption of social and economic activities in China. The Omicron strain infects far more people than conventional strains, but the risk of serious illness is low and those who are vaccinated are at very low risk of dying.
However, vaccination coverage in Hong Kong is low, a problem shared by the Chinese government. About 20 percent of people aged 60 and over in China, or about 50 million people, have not been vaccinated, according to government estimates. To make matters worse, the distribution of medical resources in China is extremely unbalanced, and most of the burden falls on the tertiary hospitals. Health care is even more scarce in rural areas.
An important factor that can be seen from the situation in Hong Kong is prioritizing treatment of those at high risk of severe illness over eliminating new infections and ensuring a system that can adequately admit hospitalized patients.
Hong Kong has been unable to implement strict measures to isolate all infected people and close contacts in government facilities. But the painful experience could be a valuable learning opportunity for the Chinese government.
●Background news
* Chinese authorities are “actively exploring” ways to relax strict COVID-19 measures, with some experimental measures possibly being rolled out as early as summer. The Wall Street Journal of the United States reported on the 2nd, citing relevant sources.
Zeng Guang, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that Chinese and Western scientists agree on many points, among which the Omicron strain is more contagious. He also said that the view that the risk of death is decreasing has been included. Released on personal Weibo on February 28. He also hailed the West as “courageous” in reopening borders and said China would soon draw up a roadmap for living with the coronavirus.
* The Hong Kong government announced on the 2nd that the number of new infections was 55,353 and the death toll was 117. The number of new infections has surged from about 100 in early February to more than 500. The government said it was still planning the mandatory testing system and was “finishing” it.
(The author is a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews, and this column is the author’s personal opinion.)
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